The Orange Basin, located off the southwestern coast of Namibia, has rapidly emerged as one of the world’s most promising oil and gas exploration regions. Spanning approximately 160,000 square kilometers, with half of its expanse lying within Namibian waters and the other half extending into South Africa, this deepwater basin has captivated the attention of global energy companies. Its geological potential, coupled with a string of significant discoveries since 2022, has positioned Namibia as a potential heavyweight in the global hydrocarbon market. Among the players making waves in this frontier is Supernova Metals Corp., a company that has recently entered the scene with strategic acquisitions and ambitious exploration plans, positioning itself alongside industry giants like Shell, TotalEnergies, and Galp Energia.

The Geological Promise of the Orange Basin

The Orange Basin owes its allure to its complex geological history. Formed during the Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous period as South America and Africa began to rift apart, the basin is characterized by a volcanic-rifted passive margin south of the Walvis Volcanic Ridge. This tectonic evolution created a variety of trapping mechanisms and reservoir types, including high-quality Lower Cretaceous sandstones and Upper Cretaceous turbidites. The presence of a world-class source rock, often referred to as the “Kudu shale,” has long hinted at the basin’s hydrocarbon potential. However, it was not until recent advancements in deepwater drilling technology and seismic imaging that explorers could unlock its secrets.

Before 2022, Namibia’s oil exploration history was marked by sporadic efforts and limited success. The Kudu gas field, discovered in 1974 with contingent reserves of 1.3 trillion cubic feet, remained the country’s only notable find for decades. Despite this, Namibia had never produced a barrel of oil or a cubic foot of gas. That narrative changed dramatically when Shell announced the discovery of light oil and associated gas at the Graff-1X well in Petroleum Exploration License (PEL) 39, followed shortly by TotalEnergies’ Venus-1X discovery in PEL 56. These breakthroughs electrified the industry, proving the existence of a prolific oil kitchen and sparking a modern-day exploration boom.

A Surge of Discoveries

Since 2022, the Orange Basin has witnessed an unprecedented success rate in exploration drilling. Companies like Shell, TotalEnergies, and Galp Energia have drilled multiple wells, with a success rate exceeding 80%—a figure that stands out on a global scale. Shell’s discoveries at Graff-1X, Jonker-1X, La Rona, and Lesedi-1X have revealed recoverable resources potentially exceeding 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, including significant gas volumes. TotalEnergies’ Venus-1X discovery, estimated to hold up to 3 billion barrels of oil, is considered sub-Saharan Africa’s largest find to date. Meanwhile, Galp Energia’s Mopane discovery in PEL 83, with in-place hydrocarbons estimated at 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent or higher, has further underscored the basin’s supergiant potential.

These discoveries have not only validated the Orange Basin’s prospectivity but also highlighted its challenges. The ultra-deepwater environment—often exceeding 3,000 meters—presents technical hurdles, while the gas-rich nature of the oil raises questions about commercial viability and gas management. Despite these obstacles, the scale of the basin and its untapped reserves continue to draw interest from both established majors and emerging players.

Supernova Metals Enters the Fray

Among the newcomers to this dynamic landscape is Supernova Metals Corp., a Canadian company traditionally focused on mining but now expanding into the offshore energy sector. In February 2025, Supernova announced its acquisition of NamLith Resources Corp., securing a 12.5% equity interest in Westoil Limited. Westoil holds a 70% stake in PEL 107, a petroleum exploration license located in the Orange Basin. This strategic move marks Supernova’s entry into one of the world’s hottest exploration frontiers, aligning it with the basin’s growing reputation as a hydrocarbon hotspot.

PEL 107 is strategically positioned in the Orange Basin, neighboring blocks operated by major oil producers such as Shell (PEL 39), TotalEnergies (PEL 56), and Galp Energia (PEL 83). This proximity is significant, as it places Supernova’s property within the same geological fairway that has yielded multi-billion-barrel discoveries. The Orange Basin’s vast size and the clustering of successful wells suggest that PEL 107 could tap into the same prolific Lower Cretaceous and Upper Cretaceous plays that have defined its neighbors’ success.

Supernova has wasted no time in advancing its exploration efforts. Following the acquisition, the company initiated a National Instrument 51-101 technical report, engaging UK-based firms 05 Management Ltd. and Pioneer Oil and Gas Consulting Ltd. to assess PEL 107’s potential. This report, expected to provide detailed geological and geophysical insights, is a critical step in outlining the license’s hydrocarbon prospects. Supernova’s CEO, Sean McGrath, emphasized the acquisition’s importance, stating, “The Orange Basin offers promising growth potential, and we are eager to capitalize on NamLith’s stake in Westoil.”

While Supernova has yet to announce specific drilling results as of April 2025, its entry into the basin is a bold statement of intent. The company’s focus on PEL 107 positions it to leverage the region’s favorable geological conditions and modern exploration technologies, such as 3D seismic surveys and deepwater drilling capabilities. With less than 25 offshore wells drilled along Namibia’s 1,300-kilometer coastline, the Orange Basin remains vastly underexplored, offering ample opportunity for Supernova to make significant discoveries.

Neighboring Giants: A Competitive Landscape

Supernova’s neighbors in the Orange Basin are some of the industry’s most formidable players, each contributing to the region’s transformation into a global exploration hotspot. Shell’s PEL 39, covering 12,000 square kilometers, has been a cornerstone of the basin’s success, with discoveries like Graff and Jonker hinting at a resource base that could rival the Suriname-Guyana Basin. However, Shell has faced challenges, recently writing down $400 million in PEL 39 due to technical and geological complexities that rendered some finds commercially unfeasible as of January 2025. Despite this setback, Shell remains committed to further exploration, underscoring the basin’s long-term potential.

TotalEnergies’ PEL 56, encompassing over 8,000 square kilometers, hosts the Venus discovery, which is on track for a final investment decision in 2025 and first oil by 2029. The company’s ongoing appraisal campaign, including wells like Mangetti-1X, continues to refine its understanding of the resource base. Galp Energia’s PEL 83, located north of PEL 39, has emerged as a standout with the Mopane complex, where testing flows reached 14,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Galp’s decision to sell a 40% stake in PEL 83 reflects the high value placed on Orange Basin assets, with proceeds expected to reach billions of dollars.

Supernova’s PEL 107 benefits from its proximity to these blocks, sharing the same geological trends that have proven successful. The Orange Basin’s scale—massive exploration blocks and structures spanning hundreds of square kilometers—suggests that discoveries in one area could extend into adjacent licenses, potentially amplifying Supernova’s prospects.

Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

The Orange Basin’s promise is tempered by its challenges. The deepwater environment demands cutting-edge technology and significant capital investment, while the high gas content of many discoveries requires innovative solutions for monetization. Namibia’s government, keen to balance economic development with sustainability, is working to establish a robust regulatory framework to ensure benefits accrue to its people. For Supernova, these factors underscore the need for strategic partnerships and technical expertise to unlock PEL 107’s potential.

Yet, the opportunities outweigh the risks. With billions of dollars expected to flow into the basin in 2025 for exploration and infrastructure, companies like Supernova are well-positioned to ride the wave of investment. The company’s early-stage efforts, backed by its neighbors’ proven successes, suggest it could play a pivotal role in the Orange Basin’s next chapter. As exploration continues, Supernova Metals may well add its name to the list of significant discoveries, cementing Namibia’s status as a new frontier in global energy.

In conclusion, the Orange Basin represents a rare convergence of geological riches and modern exploration prowess. Supernova Metals, with its foothold in PEL 107 and its ambitious vision, stands at the threshold of this transformative era, neighboring giants and poised to contribute to Namibia’s hydrocarbon renaissance.